22nd World Travel Monitor® Forum in Pisa: Private consumers still a reliable economic support

ifo Institute: no risk of another global recession – however, economic recovery is taking longer than expected

ITB BerlinPisa/Berlin, 28 October 2014 – Contrary to the sceptical forecasts for the global economy in 2015, Germany’s travel industry will still be able to rely on private consumers next year. “We see no danger of people saving money ’due to anxiety’ or even of a recession“, said Dr. Gernot Nerb, an economic expert at the Munich-based ifo Institute for Economic Research. Speaking in Pisa last Tuesday at the start of the 22nd World Travel Monitor® Forum Gernot Nerb said: “Next year, wages and salaries will rise more rapidly than in 2014 and will give consumer confidence an even stronger boost than in previous years. Furthermore, the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage will have a positive effect on income trends and thus indirectly on the travel industry too.”

According to Gernot Nerb, “Overall, in 2015 private disposable income is likely to increase by 2.8 per cent“. Everything pointed to a continuing economic recovery, he said, even if it was taking longer than was expected a few months ago. By contrast, the economies of France and Italy were lagging behind considerably. In spite of this, Europe as a whole could expect 0.8 per cent growth this year and 1.1 per cent growth in 2015, with its unemployment figures falling only slightly from 11.6 to 11.3 per cent over the same period. According to Gernot Nerb, “These developments are extremely bad for consumer confidence in the countries in question and will also have a negative impact on the travel industry in these EU countries.“

“Due to the continuing and increasingly strong recovery of the US economy and, at around seven per cent, China’s economy showing consistently stable growth, we see no danger of another global recession“, Nerb added. On the contrary, it was likely that Europe’s economic recovery would now be gathering pace.

According to Gernot Nerb there was no reason for Germany as a travel destination to mistrust the current growth trend. “There is no indication that people intend to limit their holiday spending in Germany“, the ifo Institute’s economic expert said.

Launched by the consultancy IPK International and sponsored by ITB Berlin, every year at the World Travel Monitor® Forum in Pisa 50 tourism experts and researchers from around the world present current statistics and the latest trends in international tourism.

Other results of the January to August 2014 trend surveys conducted by IPK as well as the assessments of more than 50 tourism experts from over 20 countries and the core data of the World Travel Monitor® will be published exclusively by ITB Berlin. Detailed information will be available in the ITB World Travel Trends Report in early December at www.itb-berlin.com. At the ITB Future Day of the ITB Berlin Convention Rolf Freitag, president of IPK International, will present the findings of the World Travel Monitor® for the entire year, as well as the latest forecasts for 2015. The World Travel Monitor® is based on the findings of representative interviews carried out with more than 500,000 people in over 60 global travel markets. It has been published regularly for more than 20 years and is recognised as the most widescale continuous survey examining global travel trends.

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